ETH Zurich - D-BAUG - IBK (Faber) - Risk and Safety HS 07

If you are a student registered for this course - please contact Mr. Harikrishna Narasimhan by sending an email to harikrishna@ibk.baug.ethz.ch
All others - this costs 100 Swiss Francs (67 Euros). Please contact Ms. Annette Walzer by sending an email to walzer@ibk.baug.ethz.ch

Exercises

Exercises (download)

Exercise Solutions (download)

General Information

Software

For Bayesian Probabilistic Nets, the use of Hugin Lite is recommended. This program can be downloaded from www.hugin.com. The direct link to the download page of the demo version of Hugin Lite is: Hugin Lite

For Reliability Analysis, the program Strurel will be used in this course.

Assistant

Name	E-Mail	Telephone	Office	Office Hours
Harikrishna Narasimhan	harikrishna@ibk.baug.ethz.ch	044 633 42 15	HIL E 13.1	By appointment

Date

Subject(s)

Presentation

26.09.07

Introduction and overview
- Life quality, risks and decision making
- Hazards and causes of failures

Lecture 1

03.10.07

Review of probability theory and statistics
- Uncertainties in engineering modeling
- Basic data analysis
- Random variables and processes
- Engineering model building

Lecture 2

10.10.07

Engineering decision analysis
- Prior decision analysis
- Posterior decision analysis
- Pre-posterior decision analysis

Lecture 3

17.10.07

Risk assessment in civil engineering
- Procedures of risk assessment
- Scenario identification and analysis
- System representation
- Probabilities and consequences
- Multi scale indicator based risk assessment

Lecture 4

24.10.07

Classical reliability analysis
- Failure rate data
- The reliability function
- Updating of failure rates based on data
- Failure rate functions and the bath-tub curve

Lecture 5

31.10.07

Structural reliability analysis
- First and Second Order Reliability Methods
- Monte Carlo and importance sampling

Lecture 6

07.11.07

The JCSS probabilistic model code
- Probabilistic modelling of resistances
- Probabilistic modelling of loads

Lecture 7

12.11.07

Software tools for reliability analysis:
- Presentation of the COMREL program
- Exercises in the PC-lab

Lecture 8

Please note that this lecture will be held in the computer room HIL E 15.2

14.11.07

Time variant reliability analysis
- The Poisson and the Normal processes
- The first excursion problem and mean out crossing rates
- Approximations in time variant reliability analysis
- Treatment of non-ergodic variables and random Sequences

Lecture 9

21.11.07

Systems reliability analysis
- Series and parallel system analysis
- Structural systems analysis
- Robustness assessment of structures

Lecture 10

28.11.07

Bayesian Probabilistic Nets (BPN) in risk assessment
- Basic theory of BPN
- Application of BPN in risk assessment
- Application of BPN in large scale risk management

Lecture 11

05.12.07

Reliability based structural design and assessment
- Safety formats of design codes
- Calibration of design codes
- Reliability updating
- Assessment of existing structures (and SIA 269)

Lecture 12

12.12.07

Risk based inspection and maintenance planning
- The basic problem
- Modelling of degradation processes
- Inspection quality and the PoD concept
- Generic approaches to inspection planning

Lecture 13

19.12.07

Optimal decision making and risk acceptance criteria
- Optimality in engineering decision making
- The ALARP principle for acceptability
- The Life Quality Index and acceptable life safety
- Societal life saving costs and willingness to pay

Lecture 14

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