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Download restricted non-printable version
For those interested in the open printable version:
Exercises (download)
Exercise Solutions (download)
For Bayesian Probabilistic Nets, the use of Hugin Lite is recommended. This program can be downloaded from www.hugin.com. The direct link to the download page of the demo version of Hugin Lite is: Hugin Lite
For Reliability Analysis, the program Comrel will be used in this course.
Name | Telephone | Office | Office Hours | |
Harikrishna Narasimhan | harikrishna@ibk.baug.ethz.ch | 044 633 42 15 | HIL E 13.1 | By appointment |
Date | Subject(s) | Presentation | |
16.09.09 |
Introduction and overview - Life quality, risks and decision making - Hazards and causes of failures |
Lecture 1 |
|
23.09.09 |
Review of probability theory and statistics - Uncertainties in engineering modeling - Basic data analysis - Random variables and processes - Engineering model building |
Lecture 2 |
|
30.09.09 |
Engineering decision analysis - Prior decision analysis - Posterior decision analysis - Pre-posterior decision analysis |
Lecture 3 |
|
07.10.09 |
Risk assessment in civil engineering - Procedures of risk assessment - Scenario identification and analysis - System representation - Probabilities and consequences - Multi scale indicator based risk assessment |
Lecture 4 |
|
14.10.09 |
Classical reliability analysis - Failure rate data - The reliability function - Updating of failure rates based on data - Failure rate functions and the bath-tub curve |
Lecture 5 |
|
21.10.09 |
Structural reliability analysis - First and Second Order Reliability Methods - Monte Carlo and importance sampling |
Lecture 6 |
|
28.10.09 |
Software tools for reliability analysis - Presentation of the COMREL program - Exercises in the PC-lab |
Lecture Comrel |
Please note that this session will be held in a computer room |
04.11.09 |
The JCSS probabilistic model code - Probabilistic modelling of resistances - Probabilistic modelling of loads |
Lecture 7 |
|
11.11.09 |
Systems reliability analysis - Series and parallel system analysis - Structural systems analysis - Robustness assessment of structures |
Lecture 8 |
|
18.11.09 |
Time variant reliability analysis - The Poisson and the Normal processes - The first excursion problem and mean out crossing rates - Approximations in time variant reliability analysis - Treatment of non-ergodic variables and random Sequences |
Lecture 9 |
|
25.11.09 |
Bayesian Probabilistic Nets (BPN) in risk assessment - Basic theory of BPN - Application of BPN in risk assessment - Application of BPN in large scale risk management |
Lecture 10 |
|
02.12.09 |
Reliability based structural design and assessment - Safety formats of design codes - Calibration of design codes - Reliability updating - Assessment of existing structures (and SIA 269) |
Lecture 11 |
|
09.12.09 |
Risk based inspection and maintenance planning - The basic problem - Modelling of degradation processes - Inspection quality and the PoD concept - Generic approaches to inspection planning |
Lecture 12 |
|
16.12.09 |
Optimal decision making and risk acceptance criteria - Optimality in engineering decision making - The ALARP principle for acceptability - The Life Quality Index and acceptable life safety - Societal life saving costs and willingness to pay |
Lecture 13 |
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