Real Time Decision Support in the Face of Evolving Natural Hazards

The present project aims, on the basis of the pre-posterior decision theory, at establishing a framework for near-real-time decision making which supports decisions on loss reduction in the face of emerging natural hazards. The natural hazards considered in the present project have common characteristics; the processes of natural hazard events evolve relatively slowly or precursors on the intensities of natural hazard events are available prior to the impacts of the events. Hence, reactive loss reduction actions can be undertaken if required. The project is organized into the following main parts: (1) general identification and formulation of the decision problem; (2) indicator based, generic characterization and probabilistic modeling of hazard processes and consequences and (3) mathematical formulation and numerical implementation of decision optimization strategies facilitating utilization of near-real-time information. The established framework facilitates decision makers to optimize decisions on e.g. operation of facilities, evacuation of people and assets, and early warning for natural hazards; e.g. tropical/winter storms, floods and avalanches.

• Real Time Decision Support in the Face of Evolving Natural Hazards (22424)