Natural hazards risk assessment using Bayesian networks

Authors

Daniel Straub

Abstract

The objective of the present paper is the demonstration of the potential and advantages ofBayesian networks for the application in risk assessments for natural hazards. For this purpose, a generalframework for natural hazardsrisk assessment is presented and a brief introduction to Bayesian networks isprovided. The methodology is then applied to rating systems for assessing rock-fall hazard risks on roads, where it is shown how Bayesian networks can improve the consistency and traceability of such models. It is pointed out that Bayesian networks have a large potential for the modeling of natural hazard risks because oftheir intuitive format, which facilitates the cooperation of specialists from several disciplines, and becausethey support the modeling of the various inter-dependencies, caused by common influencingparameters, which are typical for natural hazards.

Published in/by

Proceedings ICOSSAR'05, 9th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Rome, June 19-23, 2005.
In: ICOSSAR 2005, G. Augusti, G.I. Schuëller, M. Ciampoli (eds)© 2005 Millpress, Rotterdam, ISBN 90 5966 040 4, pp. 2509-2516