Aspects of Sustainable Decision Making For Design and Maintenance

Author

Michael H. Faber

Abstract

The interpretation and treatment of uncertainties and probabilities in engineering
decision making is discussed from the perspective of necessity and consistency. Thereafter a
summary presentation is given of the Bayesian decision theory as principally applied in the
various forms of risk assessments usually conducted for the purpose of establishing engineering
decision support. The aspects of risk perception are introduced and discussed with a view to
rational decision making on behalf of society such as e.g. when calibrating design codes. The
concept of "follow up" events is introduced as a means to underline the importance of assessing
all consequences following from adverse events. Finally a new idea is introduced namely, the
concept of sustainable decision making. It is suggested that sustainable decisions may be
achieved by formal decision analysis where the preferences of future decision makers are taken
into account with equal weight as those of the present time decision makers.

Published in/by

Proceedings of Workshop on Reliability-based Optimization, Centre of Excellence, The Polish Academy of Science, Warsaw, September, 2003.