Optimal evacuation and shut-down decisions in the face of emerging natural hazards

Authors

Kazuyoshi Nishijima, Mathias Graf und Michael H. Faber

Abstract

The present paper considers decision problems of evacuation of people and assets and shutdown of engineered facilities in the face of emerging natural hazards. First, the class of decision problems considered in the present paper is characterized; one of the important characteristics is that various indicators that contain information on the severity of the hazard continuously become available prior to the impact of the hazard. Accordingly, decision makers can make reactive decisions in near-real time in response to these indicators. Then, a decision framework for this class of decision problems is formulated taking basis in the Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis. Finally, the formulated decision framework is applied to an example, in which a decision maker has to decide if the operation of an engineered facility should be shut down in the face of an emerging typhoon. In the example, the use and advantages of the framework in practice are illustrated. The computational difficulties associated with the present decision framework are also discussed.

Published in/by

Proceedings ICOSSAR2009, 10th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Osaka, Japan, September 13-17, 2009.