Implicit Proof-Load Effect in Life-Cycle Assessment of Structural Performance

Authors

Kazuyoshi Nishijima and Michael Havbro Faber

Abstract

The present paper considers the problem of reliability updating in the context of strategic design and maintenance planning for individual as well as portfolios of structures. The motivation of the present paper is that the application of Bayesian updating of the resistance of structures and thus the probability of failure of the structures in the context of life-cycle optimization so far has been limited to the re-qualification, inspection and maintenance planning of specific individual structures. However, in the context of strategic planning the resistance and the probability of failure can and should be updated taking into account any event which might occur to the considered structure or structures over the period of time where the function supported by the structure is required. Thus in addition to the normally considered deterioration, inspection, and repair events also random events such as failures or survivals of structures must be utilized in the reliability updating. This necessitates the application of renewal theoretical concepts by which it is possible to update the resistances of structures. First, for the purpose of emphasizing the idea underlying the present paper, an illustrative example is provided. Thereafter, a rigorous formulation is presented employing the renewal theory. Thereby, an interpretation of the formulation is provided from the perspective of Bayesian updating. Three examples are presented to show the significance of the rigorous application of the formulation. Finally, the implications of the results of the examples are discussed.

Published in/by

Proceedings, IFIP'08 WG7.5 Working Conference, Mexico City, Mexico, August 6-9, 2008.