Adaption of typhoon risk modelling to climate changes

Authors

Mathias Graf, Kazuyoshi Nishijima and Michael H. Faber

Abstract

Latest analyses of the effect of global warming indicate that increased sea surface temperatures (SST) will increase the frequency of tropical cyclones with extreme wind speeds; for a general overview see the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (Solomon et al. 2007). Knutson and Tuleya investigate the effect of global warming on tropical cyclone activity on the basis of a selection of different global climate models and tropical cyclone models, assuming different scenarios for CO2 emissions (Knutson and Tuleya 2004). The analyses suggest that over a time frame of 80 years on average the minimum central pressure of tropical cyclones will decrease by about 14% from its present value and the maximum wind speed will increase by about 6%. The results from such analyses surely depend on the utilized models concerning climatic changes, tropical cyclones as well as the considered scenarios concerning emission of greenhouse gases and are thus subject to significant uncertainties. However, it is fair to assume that future tropical cyclones will result in more frequent strong wind events. This in turn will increase wind loads on buildings and structures in general and induce an increase of damages to the built environment.

Published in/by

Proceedings to IDRC International Disaster and Risk Conference, Davos, Switzerland, August 25-29, 2008.