On Temporal and Spatial Probabilistic Engineering Modeling

Authors

Michael H. Faber

Abstract

The present paper addresses temporal and spatial modeling from the perspective of providing basis for societal decision making in regard to the further development, maintenance and safeguarding and societal infrastructure. Starting point is
taken in the viewpoint that decisions concerning infrastructure projects should be optimized considering all potential benefits and losses which might arise during their entire life-cycle. For this purpose a systems representation in an intergenerational context is outlined which provides guidance on how risks may be consistently assessed considering benefits and losses caused by physical changes as well as perceived knowledge. The suggested systems representation is built up on three characteristics of the systems, namely; exposure, vulnerability and robustness. The detailed consideration of these in the modeling process as well as in the formulation of the decision problem provides aid in assessing direct and indirect consequences as well as on how these may efficiently be managed. The proposed modeling framework is illustrated and discussed taking basis in recent research on optimal engineering decision making considering maintenance planning of concrete structures, robustness assessment of structures and loss estimation for larger building stocks exposed to earthquake hazards.

Published in/by

"Aspects of Structural Reliability – In Honor of R. Rackwitz", eds. M.H. Faber, T. Vrouwenvelder and K. Zilch, Förderverein Massivbau der TU München e.V., ISBN 978-3-8316-0752, pp. 37-54.