A Bayesian framework for typhoon risk management

Authors

Kazuyoshi Nishijima and Michael H. Faber

Abstract

The present paper describes methodology for typhoon risk management followed in an undergoing project conducted in the group of Risk and Safety in ETH Zurich. The process of managing risks in regard to one or more hazards may be considered a cyclic sequence of actions with the purpose of optimizing actions of risk reduction, collection of information and updating of models. This perspective effectively implies that any risk management tool should have the potential to incorporate available data as well as to extend the models in an efficient and consistent way. The present paper proposes a methodical framework for typhoon risk management, taking basis in a Bayesian approach. Illustrations of the proposed framework and the physical
models employed in the framework are shown.

Published in/by

Proceedings ICWE 12, 12th International Conference on Wind Engineering, Cairns, Australia, July 1-6, 2007, Volume 2, pp. 1959-1966.