Research Projects

Risk and Safety in Engineering
Research and Teaching in the Group on Risk and Safety at ETH Zurich

Focus of the Work of the Group (PDF)

The group on risk and safety in civil engineering at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich, Switzerland (ETHZ) was initiated in April, 2000. The research mission for the group is to develop new theories, techniques and procedures for the enhancement of decision making in the area of civil engineering with the perspective of improving the quality of life for the individuals of society. Main focus areas include applied decision theory, risk management, risk assessment, life-cycle costing, structural reliability theory together with probabilistic and statistical modelling and assessments. Fundamental research is ongoing in the areas of sustainability, risk perception, risk aversion and risk acceptance criteria.

The group is leading and participating in several activities related to management of risks due to natural hazards as well as hazards in a broader context. In the following a selection of these projects are shortly outlined together with other relevant activities in the context of risk management.

 

Research Projects

• Real Time Decision Support in the Face of Evolving Natural Hazards
  The present project aims, on the basis of the pre-posterior decision theory, at establishing a framework for near-real-time decision making which supports decisions on loss reduction in the face of emerging natural hazards.

• Economic optimization of fire safety measures
  Costs of fire safety measures have to be balanced with the benefits they provide. For measures required by fire safety codes, this optimization needs to be done on a portfolio basis. The aim of the project is to evaluate the efficiency of different measures as a basis for future code revisions.

• Excel-based tool for the risk analysis of rockfall protection galleries
  In this project a user-oriented Excel©-based tool to assess the risk due to rockfalls on rockfall protection galleries is developed. Generic Bayesian-Networks will be used. They facilitate the direct consideration of all available sites- and object specific information of the rock-fall hazard.

• Risk assessment of snow supporting structures
  A framework for risk assessment of snow supporting structures is developed, facilitating the consistent combination of observations, theoretic models and data.

• Probabilistic Analysis of Large-scale Engineered Systems using GIS
  The project strives to push the presently ongoing research in probabilistic analysis of large systems further, with consideration of two interrelated problems; life cycle risk management of individual but large structures and risk management of geographically distributed engineered systems.

• COST TU0601: Assessment and Determination of Robustness of Structures
  The principal objective of this research project is to develop a theoretical and methodological framework for the assessment and quantification of structural robustness and its various indicators.

• Development of a method for fire risk assessment in residential and industrial buildings
  The aim of the research project is the development of a method for fire risk assessment in residential and industrial buildings

• COST E55: Prediction and Assessment of the Life-cycle Performance of Timber Structures
  The safe and sustainable use of materials in construction necessitates that the life-cycle performance of structures can be predicted and reassessed with high accuracy. The current project aims for a better understanding of structural timber for the application in a sustainable build environment.

• Monitoring based assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Converters
  For the online assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Converters classical and structural reliability methods as well as Bayesian networks are integrally applied. The project aims at condition information and decision support for inspection and maintenance planning

• Development of stochastic typhoon model in Northwest Pacific region and its application to portfolio loss estimation
  A Bayesian-based software tool is established for portfolio loss estimation due to typhoon events, which enables to integrate information, historical evidence and scientific knowledge. The tool supports decisions in insurance markets according to the level of information available.

• COST E 53: Development of an Efficient Scheme for Timber Machine Stress Grading
  The aim and main objective of the proposed research project is to provide all involved parties an efficient scheme for machine timber grading.

• Uniform Risk Assessment in the Swiss Road Network
  The aim of this research project is to develop a decision framework and a methodology to identify the appropriate and efficient use of limited resources in the society, in regard to the achievement of an acceptable level of safety for the highway network in Switzerland.

• Decision Theoretical Framework for Sustainable Decision Making in Civil Engineering
  The aim of the project is to give clarity in regard to what sustainable decision making actually means and to provide a tool for sustainable decision making when considering the planning, design, maintenance and decommission of civil engineering facilities.

• Traffic Safety on the Swiss Road Network
  The aim of this project is to develop a method for the assessment of direct and indirect consequences of different adverse events on the road network. The envisaged method should be based on recent scientific developments in the field of risk based decision making.

• Residual Risks and Acceptance Criteria for Accidental Loading on Infrastructural Facilities
  The project aims to develop the foundations for a consistent assessment of the resistance of infrastructural facilities against accidental loadings. A methodology to quantify residual risks due to these hazards will be developed and socio-economically optimal acceptance criteria will be proposed.

• Management of Earthquake Risks using Condition Indicators (MERCI)
  The project aims to develop a generic decision theoretical framework for the consistent quantitative and rational management of earthquake risks.

• Spatial Variability of Concrete Properties within a Building Component
  The aim is to provide a tool for the assessment of the spatial variability of concrete characteristics in structures and/or elements. Furthermore the areas of strong correlation are to be used in order to propose a size for the mess arrangement so that it can be used in future investigations.

• Indicators for the durability and service life of concrete structures
  Condition assessments are subject to significant uncertainties providing indications rather than observations for the structure's condition. The aim of this project is to propose a probabilistic framework for the quantification of inspection results for concrete structures.

Further Projects and Activities

Besides ongoing research project the group on risk and safety in civil engineering is also active in pre-normative and normative work in the area of risk assessment, risk management and decision making.

• The Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS)
  The JCSS is an international pre-normative committee especially concerned with the development of basic knowledge in the area of structural reliability theory and risk assessment in civil engineering. The aim of the committee is to provide basis and guidance for code committees in the area of structural and civil engineering.

• The International Forum on Engineering Decision Making (IFED)
  IFED is a five member consortium consisting of Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland, University of Calgary, Canada, University of Newcastle, Australia, University of Tokyo, Japan, University of Sydney, Australia.
  The mission statement of IFED is to explore critical issues, to share exciting developments, and to stimulate new initiatives in engineering decision making and risk analysis for engineering systems, by organizing on a regular basis open international forums that focus on specific themes providing a widely accessible publication of the contributions and of the conclusions of such forums.

• ETH Post Tsunami Initiative
  The ETH post tsunami initiative is an ETH initiated project lead by the group of risk and safety in civil engineering with the purpose of enhancing the management of risks due to natural hazards in the region of South-east Asia. The project is being conducted in close collaboration with the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) both located in Thailand but also includes several participants from other countries in the region. A special focus in the project is to provide generically applicable methodologies and tools for the efficient use of limited resources in the quest of management of natural hazards. Key elements in the project concern the interrelation between sustainable land use, hazard exposure, vulnerability of societal infrastructure and societal robustness.

• COST C26: Risk Assessment for Catastrophic Scenarios in Urban Areas
  This project is part of the COST Action C26 entitled "Urban Habitat Constructions under Catastrophic Events". It aims to evolve and establish a common framework for risk assessment based on the current best knowledge in the field. A critical review of existing frameworks would be carried out first followed by the selection of a suitable and consistent methodology. A detailed case study involving a scenario characterized by different kinds of risk arising from different types of exposures would then be carried out.

• "SAFERELNET" Thematic Network
  The SAFERELNET Thematic Network is concerned with providing safe and cost-effective solutions for industrial products, systems, facilities and structures across different industrial sectors.

• Natural Hazards in an Alpine Valley
  An interdisciplinary project within the Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering Department. The aim is the integral study of all processes contributing to the risk from natural hazards in an alpine valley. Although the project focuses on a test area, the developed approaches will be generic.

Completed Research Projects

• Time - Space - Risk. Long term stability for the cultural system
  The project aims to provide an inventory of spatial-chronological risks affecting the cultural heritage of Switzerland. The approach will place the tradition of the entire bulit infrastructure within the framework of an analysis of stability and developmental dynamics of the entire system.

• Assessment of fire characteristics of industrial buildings / Beurteilung der Brandlastcharakteristika bei Industriebauten

• Failure Consequences and Reliability Acceptance Criteria for Exceptional Building Structures
  The project analyses the consequences associated to the World Trade Centre collapse. The assessment of socio-economic consequences considers consequences due to fatalities next to businesses and material losses. Based on these findings optimal safety levels will be derived for such structures.

• COST E24 Basis for the Design of Timber Structures
  The aim of this research project is to establish the basis for deriving a consistent set of probabilistic models for strength and stiffness related timber material properties.

• Generic Approaches to Risk Based Inspection Planning for Steel Structures
  Computationally efficient procedures to the optimisation of inspections and maintenance for structures subject to deterioration, taking basis in the Bayesian decision theory, are developed. The relevance of these new methodologies for the analysis of entire systems is investigated and illustrated.