On the Application of Bayesian Probabilistic Networks for Earthquake Risk Management

Authors

Yahya Y. Bayraktarli, Jens-Peder Ulfkjaer, Ufuk Yazgan and Michael H. Faber

Abstract

The present paper considers the application of Bayesian Probabilistic Networks (BPN's) in risk manage-ment for portfolios of structures subject to earthquake hazards. The BPN's facilitate that risks are assessed ina generic framework using indicators to relate the generic representation to the specific condition prevailing a given site, soil conditions, structure class, occupancy, etc. Initially a summary of previous workin the area ofearthquake risk management is provided. Thereafter the general problem framework for management ofearthquake risks is introduced for three different decision situations; before, during and after an earthquake. Following this, a basic introduction on BPN's is provided and it is outlined how the concept of indicators provides an efficient means of representing risks generically and for updating generic models in accordancewith site specific information. A generic structural modelling framework is described which facilitatesthe automatic generation of input files for non-linear structural response analysis using the open source finiteelement software OpenSees. This framework makes it possible in a straight forward manner to analyse andgenerate vulnerability curves for several structure classes with a minimum use of man-hours. The application of the methodology is illustrated considering the decision problem of whether or not to ret-rofit a specific class of structures. The structures within the considered class represent low-rise, bare frame re-inforced concrete structures located on a site close to the western part of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey. The example describes how vulnerability curves are produced for both original and retrofitted structures andbased on a simplified consequence model illustrates how the BPN's can be used to support decision making.

Published in/by

Proceedings ICOSSAR'05, 9th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Rome, June 19-23, 2005.
In: ICOSSAR 2005, G. Augusti, G.I. Schuëller, M. Ciampoli (eds)© 2005 Millpress, Rotterdam, ISBN 90 5966 040 4, pp. 3505-3512