Consequence Assessment in Earthquake Risk Management Using Damage Indicators

Authors

Marjan Faizian, Hans-Rudolf Schalcher and Michael H. Faber

Abstract

The present paper reports on the methodical developments in regard to the
modeling and assessment of consequences due to earthquakes within a multidisciplinary research
project presently performed at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. The research project
aims to develop a generic decision theoretical framework for the consistent quantitative and
rational management of earthquake risks in three situations, namely prior to, during and after an
earthquake. First the general framework for the earthquake risk management project is outlined.
Thereafter the specific issues relating to the modeling of consequences of earthquakes are
addressed including a review of existing methodologies and results of research projects reported in
the literature. Finally an example of a draft Bayesian Probabilistic Net model considered in the
project for consequence analysis is presented and it is explained how the net may be utilized for
assessing the consequences of relevance prior, during and after an earthquake.

Published in/by

Proceedings First Forum on Engineering Decision Making IFED, December 5-9, 2004, Stoos, Switzerland available on IFED