ETH Zurich - D-BAUG - IBK (Faber) - Seminar on the Finite Element Method and the Analysis of Systems with Uncertain Properties

Um Bayes'sche Probabilistische Netze aufzustellen und auszuwerten, bietet sich die Demo-Version Hugin Lite an. Das Program kann bei Hugin bezogen werden. Der direkte Link zu dieser 2.79 MB grossen Software finden Sie hier: Hugin Lite

Für die Zuverlässigkeitsanalyse wird in der Vorlesung das Softwarepaket Strurel von RCP benutzt.

Assistentin

Name	E-Mail	Telephone	Office	Office Hours
Vasiliki Malioka	malioka@ibk.baug.ethz.ch	044 633 31 26	HIL E 23.1	Dienstag 13.30 - 15.00 Uhr

25.10.06	Introduction and overview - Life quality, risks and decision making - Hazards and causes of failures	Skript Lecture 1 Presentation Lecture 1	Exercise 1 Exercise 1 Solution
01.11.06	Review of probability theory and statistics - Uncertainties in engineering modeling - Basic data analysis - Random variables and processes - Engineering model building	Skript Lecture 2 Presentation Lecture 2	Exercise 2 Maximum Likelihood Method Method of Moments Exercise 2 Solution Exercise 2.6 Solution
08.11.06	Engineering decision analysis - Prior decision analysis - Posterior decision analysis - Pre-posterior decision analysis	Skript Lecture 3 Presentation Lecture 3	Exercise 3
15.11.06	Risk assessment in civil engineering - Procedures of risk assessment - Scenario identification and analysis - System representation - Probabilities and consequences - Multi scale indicator based risk assessment
22.11.06	Classical reliability analysis - Failure rate data - The reliability function - Updating of failure rates based on data - Failure rate functions and the bath-tub curve
29.11.06	Structural reliability analysis - First and Second Order Reliability Methods - Monte Carlo and importance sampling
06.12.06	The JCSS probabilistic model code - Probabilistic modelling of resistances - Probabilistic modelling of loads
13.12.06	Software tools for reliability analysis - Presentation of the COMREL program - Exercises in the PC-lab
20.12.06	Time variant reliability analysis - The Poisson and the Normal processes - The first excursion problem and mean out crossing rates - Approximations in time variant reliability analysis - Treatment of non-ergodic variables and random Sequences
03.01.07	Systems reliability analysis - Series and parallel system analysis - Structural systems analysis - Robustness assessment of structures
10.01.07	Bayesian Probabilistic Nets (BPN) in risk assessment - Basic theory of BPN - Application of BPN in risk assessment - Application of BPN in large scale risk management
17.01.07	Reliability based structural design and assessment - Safety formats of design codes - Calibration of design codes - Reliability updating - Assessment of existing structures (and SIA 269)
24.01.07	Risk based inspection and maintenance planning - The basic problem - Modelling of degradation processes - Inspection quality and the PoD concept - Generic approaches to inspection planning
31.01.07	Optimal decision making and risk acceptance criteria - Optimality in engineering decision making - The ALARP principle for acceptability - The Life Quality Index and acceptable life safety - Societal life saving costs and willingness to pay

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